市场的因果:对奥本海默家族退出戴比尔斯钻石公司及相关市场效应的分析

Cause and Effect of Market: An Analysis of Event That Oppenheimer Family Who Signed out De Beers

  • 摘要: 戴比尔斯是百年钻石产业的龙头,是奥本海默家族主导建立“钻石帝国”的核心企业。2011年11月,奥本海默家族出售所持有戴比尔斯的全部股权给其母公司英美集团,退出钻石产业。本文通过对2011年前后市场状况、全球市场数据的分析和比较,探索了奥本海默家族退出钻石产业和钻石市场供求关系可能具有的内在联系,分析了导致这种变化的市场因素之间的因果关系。现有证据显示,2011-2017年上游钻石市场的波动更大的可能是全球金融危机和钻石产业内部矛盾耦合强化的结果,奥本海默家族预见到了这种矛盾爆发的基本时间点及可能对钻石产业的影响。奥本海默家族退出不是钻石市场变化的主要原因,而是其结果。2018年戴比尔斯宣布建立新的品牌Lightbox专门进行合成钻石的生产和销售,显示其市场策略有了重大的转变,钻石市场新的博弈拉开序幕。

     

    Abstract: De Beers is a leading company of the century diamond industry, which is the core company of the "Diamond Empire" of Oppenheimer family. In Nov. 2011, the Oppenheimer family made a breathtaking decision which is to sell the stock right that they have of De Beers to its mother company Anglo American (AA.) and signed out the diamond industry. This paper researched that the inner connection between the change of diamond market and the decision of Oppenheimer family, and analyzed the reason of change by analyzing and comparing the market condition and the data of the international and domestic market around 2011. The present results showed that the market change for 2011-2015 is more likely a result of the combination of global financial crisis and the intensified inner industrial conflict, and whose time and the influence to the diamond market the family may be predicted. Obviously, that the family singed out is the result of the change of diamond market, instead of the reason. On May 29th in 2018, De Beers established a new brand named Lightbox to produce and sell synthetic diamonds, which showed huge change of its market stratagy and the beginning of the new game of diamond market.

     

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